When I talk to people about indoor-tracking tools like iBeacon, which Apple launched at its US stores last Friday, they’re both fascinated and frightened. They quickly appreciate how helpful a connected world can be when it knows where you are and what you’re doing. But the steady of stream of news about privacy intrusions — mostly by the NSA — makes them wonder if the cost of allowing access to more personal data is really worth it.

Location is the cornerstone for contextual awareness, a collection of efforts aimed at giving our smartphones the tools they need to begin making timely, relevant suggestions and even take action on our behalf. Understanding that we’re standing in front of the smartphones rather than the tablets is an important piece of the puzzle.

Apple introduced the iBeacon feature as part of the iOS 7 launch in September. It makes use of the iPhone’s Bluetooth radio to communicate with other iOS 7 devices as well as compatible sensors placed at strategic spots around Apple stores. Among other things, the close-range nature of Bluetooth can be used to pinpoint a shopper’s whereabouts to deliver location-specific messages. For example, someone with an older iPhone might get a trade-in offer while checking out the newer models.

The demand for insight into ever-more pots of your personal information is increasing just as the backlash from ongoing NSA revelations is making consumers more aware of the digital fingerprints they’re leaving behind, and increasingly wary of those with access.

Read the entire column HERE.

For those with a stake in consumer PC sales, there is cause for hope this year.

The environment is much improved from 2012’s disastrous holiday season. For one thing, the tablet market is fatigued. The pace of change in media tablets has slowed, so those devices aren’t nearly so alluring this year. That’s probably just as well because most people who wanted to buy a tablet already have one. Or two. Plus, demand has migrated to 8-inch tablets from the 10-inch range, so it’s now much easier to differentiate even the smallest new Windows 8 machines.

Innovation may be plateauing in media tablets, but it’s alive and well in the laptop space. The new 2-in-1’s – laptops that also function as tablets – are noticeably thinner, lighter, and sturdier than last year’s crop. They’re uber-responsive, so you won’t think twice going to your go-to device. And the battery life is far better, which means you won’t regret depending on your laptop so often.

The shopping is also much better this year because there are so many 2-in-1’s to choose from. The major manufacturers are all offering a range of models, from the sharp, clever envy-inducers all the way down to entry-level dual-mode models as low as $500. There’s a 2-in-1 for everyone, you might say.

Displays span from tablet size all the way up to the 15.5-inch range. And there are different schemes for switching to tablet mode, as well. HP’s Split X2 sheds the keyboard, while others, like Lenovo’s Yoga2 Pro or the Flip from Sony, tuck the keyboard away. There are even tablet-first 2-in-1s like Asus’ T100, which can pinch-hit as laptops.

Retail layouts are much improved from last year, when about the only way to figure out which systems incorporated touch was to go around poking screens. Stroll into a store today and it’s much easier for consumers to figure out what choices they need to make.  The traditional notebooks are now separated from the touch-enabled systems. And the touch PCs are further divided into clamshells and 2-in-1’s.

Consumers are really warming to the notion of double-duty systems. Microsoft’s Surface ads – and now Intel’s new spots promoting the two-in-one concept – are resonating with consumers, who are far more willing to listen this year. For one thing, their PCs – many of which were ready to be replaced last year – are getting pretty long in the tooth. And while consumers may not be bolting to the store to snap up a new Surface, the messages are impacting consumer preferences. I’ve been toting a Surface Pro on the road lately, and I’m surprised how often people tell me that they want something like that. They want a PC that can function as a tablet. And they really want a USB port. I mean, they really want a USB port.

It could be tablet fatigue. Or it could be that the pendulum is swinging back toward fewer electronic devices.

The demographic, I’ve observed, that buys into the two-in-one value proposition with more conviction than any other is the 25- to 34-year-old crowd. They’re just starting to build disposable income, so they’re much less inclined to have dropped hundreds of dollars on a tablet over the past several years. They’ve been making do with an older laptop or netbook. They type on their keyboards and longingly watch tablet users across the coffee shop cradling their devices and touching the displays.

They know the price of investing in the wrong system – particularly those saddled with netbooks. They want to replace their PCs, not add to their device arsenal. And they want something that is willing and able to scoot the keyboard away and sidle up to them when they sit back to watch a movie or read a book.

It’s not just the 25- to 34-year-olds, though. There are lots of consumers out there with old PCs they’re ready to replace. For them, there is a stable of spectacular systems to entice them, a sales channel that is far better prepared to help them hone in on what they want and fewer distractions to obstruct the purchase.

Sounds like a pretty good holiday season to me.

—-

Microsoft finally has given us a sign that the company understands its enterprise hegemony is at risk – and that it intends to do something about it. At their financial analyst gathering last month, executives dropped strong hints that the company is developing Outlook for the iPad and Android, although they didn’t come right out and say so.

No question that such a move is long overdue. Office dominates business productivity, though it’s under attack from Google Docs and other cloud-based services. And the longer it takes to protect that turf with moves like porting Office to other platforms, the larger the threat becomes.

But in fairness to Microsoft, the issue is so knotted up in a web of competing company interests that I’m surprised that executives are able to do anything. Indeed, one of the more difficult challenges any executive faces is how to make and manage decisions that benefit one internal group at the expense of another. The rational option, at least from a pure market potential point of view, is usually pretty apparent. The difficulty comes in trying to navigate all the beehives around the organization that you’ll be poking with your chosen direction. Imagine telling one of your kids that you love his sister more than him. If you can picture saying that — and what it would do to your day — then you’ve got a feel for management’s challenge.

The dilemma for Microsoft with its Office decision is that versions for iOS and Android would weaken Windows’ market position because it would hand to competing tablet platforms what today is an exclusive benefit that comes with choosing Windows. And it’s not as though Windows’ place in computing is so secure that in can afford to lose that. Many of its problems have been self-inflicted, yes. But the onslaught of tablets undoubtedly has contributed to the platform’s state, which is shakier now than at any time since a superior DOS from Digital Research threatened the transition to Windows.

So what to do? Prop up Windows or let Office address the entire market?

Read the entire column HERE.

Most IT managers are well aware that they have barely 200 shopping days to replace the Windows XP systems in their fleets before Microsoft stops supporting the 12-year-old operating system. That’s the bad news. The good news is that he who hesitated is not lost. The early bird did not get the worm. If you’ve waited this long, you’ll be rewarded for waiting at least another couple of days because there’s a truly great class of systems that starts to come available later this week.

All of the major OEMs will begin rolling out these systems on the heels of news from the Intel Developer Forum, which begins Tuesday in San Francisco, that Intel’s enterprise-ready Haswell processors — fourth-generation Core chips with built-in vPro, the company’s security and manageability package — are now available.

The newest Core processors boast an impressive jump in power management along with a corresponding bump in performance. What that enables are impressively thin, light systems capable of handling anything you might throw at them during a typical day. For many of these new systems, all of that comes without the need to plug them into the wall for the duration of the work day.

That newfound lift in both battery life and processing power has been widely reported since Intel’s fourth-generation Core chips first came to market in June. What’s new this week is that Intel is folding its enterprise-class vPro technology into the lineup. It’s all the same security and manageability features that IT managers have come to expect, plus a few new ones.

The PC market has sagged recently because many consumers are turned off or confused by Windows 8. But IT managers aren’t bogged down by that issue. They’ve got the Windows XP deadline hanging over their heads, and it’s compelling them to buy new systems over the next seven months.

Being compelled to buy couldn’t happen at a better time because of the banner crop of systems coming out. A couple of the new PCs have been disclosed ahead of Intel’s official vPro-enabled processor announcement, though most of the major OEMs will start to unveil theirs later this week. Many of them are traditional clamshells, though designs are trending decisively toward touch-enabled systems as well as some innovative form factors. I’ve got my eye on an as-yet-unannounced detachable: a clamshell that lets you separate the screen from the keyboard so that in a pinch you can use it as a tablet.

Intel’s added a few things to the vPro bundle, with a new twist. VPro’s always been all about making IT’s job easier. The new vPro makes life easier for the rest of us, too — with features such as built-in security for VPN certification, so you no longer need to type in a certificate each time you connect to the corporate network. So far, that works with market leader Cisco’s offerings. Intel says it plans to support other players as well.

There’s also location-based data embedded into the wireless stream, along with hooks for Microsoft’s System Center Configuration Manager, or SCCM, to find your PC. With that, IT can make it so that your system chooses whichever printer is closest to you at the moment, or homes in on the closest available conference room. That’s a whole lot easier than scanning through all the corporate assets yourself. Thus far, the feature supports Cisco, Aruba and Aeroscout access points.

The new vPro bundle also includes an enterprise-class version of Intel’s Wireless Display, or Wi-Di, technology. It enables you to quickly, easily and securely tie into the projector that’s in the conference room you’re using. Some newer projectors are compatible with the technology, though Wi-Di adapters can enable older projectors.

All of that’s to say that, for this situation at least, the old axioms advocating quick action turned out to be bad advice. Waiting was the right choice. And now, finally, you only have to wait a little bit longer.

—-

It is time for Intel to begin placing bigger bets on Windows alternatives.

Let me assure you that I’m not schizophrenic, although I do understand why you might be wondering about that right now. Yes, I do remember the advice I gave to Intel CEO Brian Krzanich in my last column, Don’t Give Up on the PC. And now I’m suggesting he invest more heavily in Windows competitors. I know it sounds contradictory. But it’s not.

As Intel’s new top executive continues to evaluate the company’s strategic priorities, he’d be foolhardy not to give Windows every shot at success. The company’s PC Client Group, or PCG, generates far more sales and profit than any other business unit – and the lion’s share of those spoils comes from Intel chips inside Windows machines. Hence the don’t-give-up message.

The flipside is that, on an annual basis, PCG’s revenue and operating income have been declining every quarter since Microsoft released Windows 8 to manufacturing. Coincidence? Unless you’re the kind of person who needs those pre-flight seat-belt fastening instructions, you don’t need me to answer that.

OK, so don’t put all your eggs in the Windows basket. Check. Now for the tough part: where to incubate the rest of those eggs?

Read the entire column HERE.

Intel CEO Brian Krzanich kicked off the first tech earnings call of the quarter by emphasizing that he’s putting a “much, much stronger effort on Atom,” the family of processors designed to power smartphones and tablets.

That’s a sensible direction to take things, in light of the PC market’s malaise. But how to re-distribute priorities? We don’t really have a basis for an answer yet because we haven’t yet gotten to see how compelling the PC can be amidst the tablet invasion because the ecosystem has yet to put its best foot forward.

To be sure, today’s PCs are far better than the state of the art three years ago, when Apple launched the original iPad. Due in large part to Intel’s Ultrabook initiative, today’s systems are far more responsive. They’re also far more attractive. And they last far longer on a charge. These are all things that make today’s PCs far more attractive than circa 2010 models.

Compelling as they are, though, these new PCs are still hobbling up to the starting gate  – just as they did last season. I’ve covered the Windows handicap in previous columns, so I won’t re-launch that rant (even though I REALLY WANT TO). If I were Krzanich, I’d tackle a few more industry-wide shortcomings as quickly as possible. Because until they’re resolved, we really won’t have any indication of how the PC will fare in the tablet era – which means Krzanich can’t know how much investment the traditional PC market deserves going forward.

Here’s what I’d tackle first:

On the tables inside the press room at the Microsoft Build Conference — a room full of computer-savvy tech press and industry analysts — lay printed instructions for how to complete a Wi-Fi connection in Windows 8.

Just Windows 8.

“Enter Desktop Mode by pressing (Windows Key) + D,” the 8.5 x 11 Wi-Fi lesson began. In contrast, the clerk at my hotel handed me — and anyone else with a reservation — a fortune cookie-sized slip of paper that provided nothing more than a SSID and network security key.

The photocopied tutorial serves as a comical exclamation point to what CEO Steve Ballmer tried to drive home during his opening keynote address: that Microsoft gets it. And it’s trying to do something about it.

Read the entire column HERE.

Since Computex in early June, PC makers have been rolling out  the next generation of ultrabook PCs. These systems are more than just another turn of the screw. They are game-changers with the potential to disrupt the way we interact with our personal electronics.

I’ve written plenty about how Microsoft’s missteps with Windows 8 have hampered OEMs’ ability to sell new PCs for the past year. And about how the timing of the Windows 8.1 release is going to clip the sales potential of this new crop of systems. That’s all still true. The PC OEMs are facing yet another daunting selling season.

Let’s be clear, though: the challenging market climate in no way undermines what this new spate of ultrabooks brings to the table. They sport a host of improvements over the last wave of ultrabooks, impressive as they were from a pure hardware perspective. Instant on, for example, is now becoming a reality. As well, the fourth-generation Intel Core processors inside afford OEMs the opportunity to build sleek, sexy systems that boast up to twice the battery life of last year’s models — without sacrificing performance. If you are in the market for a new laptop, it means you should be able to find an ultrabook that lasts all day on a single charge.

Read the entire column HERE.

It is going to be very difficult for Microsoft to succeed with Windows 8.1, and that has little to do with whether the official build will include a Start button or boot-to-desktop option. Rather, it’s because Microsoft picked a terrible time to release the upcoming follow-on to Windows 8.

When it comes to weaving the saga of Windows 8.1, the media has pretty well vetted three of the Five W’s. Most of the analysis goes like this: Microsoft (Who) must improve on Windows 8 by doing X (What) to bring more computer users into the Modern UI era (Why). The other two W’s, though, have been largely ignored. One of them, Where, isn’t really relevant to the story. But it’s curious that the question of When has barely been touched, because it’s tremendously important to the prospects for Windows 8.1 success.

Microsoft hasn’t come out and said when Windows 8.1, code-named Windows Blue, will be commercially available, although Digitimes is reporting that the official release will come in late October. Judging from the state of development activity, the timing sounds about right. This much is certain: Windows 8.1 will not be available in the next six weeks, as it needs to be to make it into the first batch of next-generation PCs.

Those cool new systems are being released in June and early July for a reason: to intercept the critical back-to-school selling season. An October launch for Windows 8.1 means that back-to-school PCs will be saddled with a lame-duck version of Windows. (I’ve written before about how important it is for the PC OEMs to update in lockstep their entire product: hardware, OS, and aesthetics.) That means we’ll see fewer PC sales than we would if PC makers were able to pair their latest hardware with the latest operating system.

Targeting the holiday season with a new version of Windows used to make perfect sense because retail copies sell better, and there was little to lose by shortchanging back-to-school systems. Not so anymore. Times have changed.

Read the entire column HERE.

When Brian Krzanich and Renee James, the newly appointed CEO and President of Intel, respectively, take over for the retiring Paul Otellini in two weeks, they won’t have to look far for things that need tending. Indeed, they will have to hit the ground running to lead Intel through what is arguably the most treacherous patch the company has encountered in its 45-year history.

Read the entire column HERE.

I dug out an old cellphone for a friend to use in a pinch. It was an LG Shine, a circa 2007 slider that was one of the glitzier feature phones in its day, albeit nothing to write home about in 2013.

Or so I thought. With all that’s packed into our smartphones today, it’s difficult to imagine the Shine as anything more than a quaint relic, an artifact harkening back to the days when consumers stole music but paid for 15-second ringtones of the same songs. But my friend was thrilled because the Shine lasted all day on a single charge. Many of us haven’t seen that since, well, 2007.

As it turned out, 2007 was in fact the year that the market began downplaying battery life in exchange for performance, features and flexibility. Of course, the catalyst for the shift was not the LG Shine, but Apple’s iPhone — the device that ushered in the modern-day smartphone era.

Could 2013 be the year that the tide turns, and battery life becomes more important again?

Read the entire column HERE.

The Windows 8 go-to-market plan last year played out like a Greek tragedy: the wounds that Microsoft endured were almost entirely self-inflicted. Like when the company violated the trust of hardware partners by disclosing at the 11th hour that it was planning to build its own-branded tablets. Or by introducing Windows 8 in late October instead of midyear, when the first systems built for the new OS were coming available. Or by taking away the Start button and forcing users to contend with the Start screen, but not doing enough to court developers so that the go-to tablet apps were available for the so-called Modern UI at launch.

I bring this up not to pile on, but to point out some encouraging signs that Microsoft may – finally – comprehend the mess it’s gotten itself into and is taking steps to right the ship. It had better. Because every quarter that passes with Windows 8 flapping in the breeze is another quarter that Android and iOS tablets become more entrenched in consumer usage patterns.

Read the entire column HERE.

How ironic that for much of the middle two days of the four-day Congress — the industry’s flagship venue for showcasing the world’s latest mobile devices, apps and transmission technology — that the network in the convention center was so taxed attendees were unable to make calls or check email for hours at a time. Playing with any of the cool new apps was out of the question. Heck, calling someone to tell them you’d be late to a meeting was a roll of the dice.

Indeed, the only reliable means of communication was going old school with it on the 160-character Dino-Net.

The paucity of bandwidth at the mobile industry’s own show underscores the urgency of the looming capacity crunch. I went to MWC, you may recall, in search of answers to a problem that, left unchecked, threatens to spoil the seemingly boundless explosion in mobile.

Read about what I learned HERE.

I’ve got quite the laundry list of new mobile device technologies to evaluate at Mobile World Congress in Barcelona this coming week. The list is even larger than the one I wrote about while en route to CES in January.

But my number one priority at MWC won’t be any of those cool new features for smartphones, tablets and PCs. First and foremost, I will be investigating alternatives for expanding wireless data capacity.

So why is a guy who makes a living analyzing mobile client technology trends paying such close attention to carrier deployment issues? It’s simple: no one will use the cool new features if the wireless network doesn’t have the capacity to support them.

Read the entire column HERE

People who have monkeys for pets should just go ahead and have kids, Jerry Seinfeld years ago joked in a standup bit about pet ownership. “If you need a pet that can roller skate and smoke cigars, it’s time to think about a family.”

When you boil it down, that’s why Microsoft’s new Surface Pro won’t rack up much in the way of sales. It’s an awful lot of computer trapped inside the body of a tablet. Which means tradeoffs.

With apologies to Seinfeld, if you’re thinking about Surface Pro ownership, then you’re so close. Just go out and get a real computer.

Most consumers will do just that. Many enterprise buyers, however, will be ordering a few Surface Pro’s. Click HERE to find out why.

In my last column, I offered PC vendors some advice on how to position Windows 8 systems. That’s not a miracle cure for solving PC players’ woes. All that will do is pry from the industry’s hand the pistol it’s using to shoot itself in the foot. PC vendors will need to do more if they want to re-inject excitement into their products and get their business back on a growth trajectory.

Here’s the bottom line: PC vendors need to incorporate model years into their product positioning. You know, like the automobile makers do.

Smartphones and tablets — the devices that are eating the PC’s lunch — exploit the model-year concept. Suppliers leverage their annual rollouts to generate pull from consumers, and consumers respond. PC vendors, meanwhile, continue to manage new releases like it’s 1999.

That’s not entirely the OEMs’ fault. But it is entirely their problem.

Implementing model years doesn’t have to be that complicated. Click HERE to find out how.

Early returns confirm what we already knew: that Windows 8’s coming-out was no party.

The problem: Windows 8 is being marketed as a touch-centric OS, and there aren’t many touch-enabled systems available.

The percentage of touch-enabled laptops that were shipped in the fourth quarter was miniscule — less than 1%, according to Digitimes Research. That number is forecasted to grow only to about 10% in 2013. Which means that more disappointing sales are on the horizon.

As I see it, the PC ecosystem has two options if it wants a shot at salvaging 2013: 1) Find a way to reverse that 90:10 ratio, so that the vast majority of systems are touch-enabled, or 2) start marketing non-touch systems to end users.

Read the entire column HERE.

If you want to get the most out of CES, you have to peer around the big TVs and pimped-out automobiles. I’ll be keeping an eye on a few key technology trends. They all have the potential to be the next big thing. But will they be? And if so, when?

Read the entire column HERE.

The battle lines between tablet vendors were so clear a year ago. Heading into the holiday season, suppliers for the most part believed that consumers wanted either a 7-inch tablet or a 10-inch tablet. This year, though, they’re offering one of each.

Apple and Amazon, two of the more visible champions for 10-inch and 7-inch devices, respectively, have since come to appreciate the other’s perspective, as they’ve rounded out their 2012 holiday lineups with tablets targeting the other’s wheelhouse. But why? Do they view size as a matter of taste, as it is with mobile phones and motor vehicles? Or do they think that the same consumers want both?

I’m here to tell you that before long, you’ll want one of each — even if you don’t right now. And tablet makers who don’t understand that emerging dynamic today will figure it out soon enough.

Read the entire column HERE.

When my pre-ordered Surface tablet arrived, as promised, on October 26th, my editor suggested I journal my first week with the new device.

Great idea. Unfortunately for her, it was me she chose to run with it.

So, a few delays. No problem.  I told myself that if she liked the idea of one week with Microsoft’s new tablet, then she’d love a column about my first two weeks with Surface. Right?

Now I’ve spent a month on the Surface. My editor may not be too thrilled that I deviated from the “one week in” concept — but Microsoft should be. Because during the first week, I wanted to throw the tablet out the window. And now I kind of like it.

Why the huge swing in perception?

Read the entire column HERE

One Microsoft Way. The irony dripping from the address of the technology giant’s headquarters never fails to tease a smile out of me.

In days gone by, the second entendre was more a commentary on the company’s heavy-handed reign over the software world. You know, like One Microsoft Way or the highway.

That’s a stark contrast to the scene today at One Microsoft Way. The company is playing catch-up in the two crucial personal electronic device markets, and must now court developers to write apps that work on its platforms.

Toward that end, the company is pitching One Microsoft Way as a benefit to developers. With so much commonality across the new Windows platforms, developers can leverage their investment by stretching apps across Windows smartphones, tablets and PCs.

That’s the message the company is serving to developers: write once and sell thrice.

How viable is the One Microsoft Way model? Read on at InformationWeek.com.

Is Microsoft really planning to sell a branded smartphone? I’d be surprised to hear otherwise.

Indeed, as the company prepares for what might be the most critical series of announcements in its 37-year history, the question isn’t whether it’s planning its own Windows Phone. Rather, it’s what Microsoft hopes to gain by releasing it.

All the smartphone buzz is coming to a head even as some PC vendors are still trying to understand why Microsoft is selling Surface, its own family of tablets built around Windows RT, the iterant of Windows 8 for ARM processors. Many of the PC suppliers are also producing Windows RT tablets, and the notion that Microsoft would be competing with them is tough to swallow. The Surface tablets–as well as many of the other RT devices–will be available on Friday, which is also the first day that consumers can take home Windows 8-based PCs from Microsoft’s hardware partners.

Microsoft’s Windows Phone 8 devices similarly would compete with smartphones produced by Microsoft’s hardware partners. So after decades of producing either peripherals that complement its partners’ products or proprietary platforms in non-PC markets–such as Xbox and Zune–Microsoft’s hardware portfolio soon will sport two devices that battle its partners’ offerings. The burning question: Why has the company decided to cross that line?

Read the entire column on InformationWeek.com.

The first Windows 8 advertisement danced its way across television screens across America during breaks in NFL football action on Sunday, and guess what? It was all about touch. Touch and tiles.

That should shock no one. Touch and tiles, that’s the essence of Windows 8’s new user interface. Swap out the new UI – Microsoft now calls it the “Modern UI” – with the Windows 7 “Start” menu and all you’d be left with are a few cosmetic changes along with some minor improvements under the hood. So if Windows 8 compels consumers to run out and buy PCs this holiday season, it will be because Modern UI is a hit. And Modern UI is all about – I’ll say it again – touch and tiles.

Pretty simple. And yet a surprising number of the Windows 8 PCs now making their way to store shelves in preparation for the October 26 launch date aren’t touch enabled. The reason: PC makers are worried that most consumers won’t be willing to shell out the money for a new laptop with touch, which adds about $100 to the price of a system.

It’s hard to fault them entirely for that line of reasoning. While there will be some Windows 8-based Ultrabooks available at mainstream, high-volume price points, many of the coolest, most lust-inducing models will be priced north of $1,000. Which means they’re not going to sell that many of them.

So the PC vendors are caught in bit of a Catch 22: They can build Windows 8 systems at prices that most consumers are willing to pay. Or they can build Windows 8 systems that most consumers will really want to buy. But they’re having trouble compressing both into the same systems – which means there’ll be a firesale for non-touch laptops come January.

Read the entire column on InformationWeek.com

In a few short weeks, buyers will get their first glimpse of this holiday season’s PCs. By most any measure, it’s an exceptional vintage of sleek, ultra-thin laptops running Windows 8. Indeed, the upcoming models represent the biggest leap over the prior year’s harvest than we’ve seen in a long time–maybe ever.

So if you set aside all the other variables that sway how consumers apportion their electronics budgets, you’d expect PC sales to swell this quarter. That’s what happened three years ago, when Microsoft replaced a dreadful OS, Windows Vista, with Windows 7. PC sales grew 22.1 percent that quarter, sharply higher than the 0.5 percent growth logged in the prior period, according to Gartner data.

Of course, you can’t set aside all the other variables. The economy has been pinching consumers’ wallets for four years now. At the same time, other exciting devices like HDTVs, smartphones, and tablets have been taking a bigger slice of those budgets.

As we head into the year’s final period, the threat level from the tablet side of the aisle is most perplexing. On the one hand, sales are slowing as many Americans who’ve craved a companion device now have one.

On the other hand sits a potentially disruptive new platform. And ironically, it’s from Microsoft–the same company that’s bringing you Windows 8. The software giant plans to release what it calls Windows RT, a tablet version of Windows 8 for ARM processors, in concert with the PC version of the new OS. Conventional Windows 8, like all previous versions of Windows, runs on x86 processors.

Along the floor space between the Windows 8 systems and Windows RT tablets is a marketing minefield that Microsoft will need to maneuver with extreme caution or the holiday season could blow up in its face.

Read the entire column on InformationWeek.com.

This is normally a nerve-wracking time of year for PC makers, because they have to place bets on the upcoming holiday selling season. Bet too much, and they’ll have to shed the overstock after New Year’s with profit-bleeding promotions. Bet too little, and their competitors will gladly fill the orders.

The Windows 8-based ultrabooks they’ll be offering are pretty cool – cool enough that the PC vendors should be betting big. But after a year of losing sales to tablets, they’re not. Their pre-season jitters are on steroids.

With that as a backdrop, you would have expected Intel CEO Paul Otellini to deliver the pep talk of his career at this year’s Intel Developer Forum (IDF). Maybe something like this: “Now, finally, we’ve got systems that address many of the shortcomings that the tablet phenomenon has exposed. So let’s go out there and take back our market!”

But he didn’t. In fact, he didn’t even speak this year. Why not?

Read the entire column on InformationWeek.com.

It’s a two-horse race right now in the smartphone market: Android on Samsung and iOS on Apple. But on the next turn, Microsoft will have a golden opportunity to nudge its thoroughbred into the pack. To achieve that, Windows Phone 8 needs to be good, but it doesn’t have to be the best platform out there.

To move the market-share needle, Microsoft will have to fix something that bothers us about the platforms we’re carrying around today. They’ll also have to solve something the carriers don’t like about Android and iOS.

Think your smartphone’s smart now? Sure, it can tap the resources of the internet to answer virtually anything you ask. But what if it could predict what information you needed? Better yet, what if your phone understood you well enough that it could offer up information you didn’t even know you needed. Now that would be a smart phone! You’ll have one someday–and sooner than you might think.

Consider this: There’s arguably no single person, no one thing that spends more time with you than your smartphone. Because of all our time together, these devices have a unique opportunity to get to know us better–maybe even better than we know ourselves. Up to now, though, they haven’t really tried.

Why not?

What our phones lack is contextual awareness, an ability to identify and filter the salient information from that data storm and present it to us, unprompted, at a time we’ll find it useful. Give our smartphones a way to track all that data and a set of tools to analyze it and we’ll be well on the way to realizing the dream of truly smart phones.

A slew of companies are laser-focused to enable context awareness. Your smartphone will be context aware – and sooner than you might think.

Read the entire column on InformationWeek.com.

When people are on the go, they don’t want to carry more than two personal electronic devices: one in the pocket and one in the bag. When a third device crops up, it’s because it addresses a shortcoming in one or both primary devices.

I’ve been saying this for more than a decade, as InformationWeek‘s Patrick Houston noted in his recent ode to the not-dead-yet PC. I believed in the two-device maxim when PDAs thrust their way onto the scene. I believed it when portable navigation devices began selling. And I still believed it as Apple prepared to bring the first media tablet to market.

These days, though, amidst the persistent flood of tablet shipments and pessimistic PC forecasts, I’ve had to defend my little two-device maxim like never before. Are we temporarily out of balance? Or is this the start of a new normal?

Read the entire column on InformationWeek.com

The ongoing land-grab by Apple, Google and Microsoft doesn’t just impact Amazon, as I explained in my post, The Death of ‘Open.’ It threatens the livelihood of anyone who wants to court customers on the internet.

A collection of retailers, including big-box brands like Wal-Mart and Target aren’t willing to cede control of mobile payments to Google Wallet. So they’ve joined forces to establish their own mobile payments alternative, as reported in today’s Wall Street Journal. The effort is called the Merchant Customer Exchange, or MCX.

This is just the start. Watch for more initiatives like this from companies who don’t want to be an after-thought when we’re shopping from our smartphones and media tablets.